Furthermore, the Isles allowed 27 more high-danger scoring chances than they created (per Natural Stat Trick) against the Pens and Bruins.
New York has skated to a +0.72 goal differential per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in the playoffs, but its expected goal differential per 60 sits at -0.32 (per Evolving Hockey). For the most part, that is the right way to approach betting on the NHL - drowning out the noise and sticking to predictive stats - but there is always an exception to the rule, and perhaps the Isles are just an outlier and should be handled as such until proven otherwise.Īs far as the numbers go, the Isles have struggled to control play at 5-on-5 over the first 12 games of their postseason journey. It’s hard to put a number on intangibles like chemistry, knowledge of a system and resiliency, so oftentimes bettors just draw a line through those abstract concepts and stick to their numbers. Although the Islanders posted strong underlying metrics for much of this season, bookmakers, market-setters and statistical modelers have had a tough time figuring out how the Isles get their results.īET NOW Trying to Make Sense of the Isles That number may seem quite high considering how tough an out the Isles have proven to be under Trotz, but it won’t surprise folks who have been following the NHL betting market over the past few seasons.
#NY ISLANDERS VS TB LIGHTNING SERIES#
When you convert those odds to implied win probability, the Lightning are expected to win this series just about 72.6% of the time. Tampa’s current form is hard to argue with, which is why bookmakers have tagged the Bolts as -265 favorites in this series. Tampa quieted the critics by dispatching the Cats and Canes without too much of a fuss. After finishing third in the Central, the skeptics out there wondered if the Bolts would be able to raise their level in the postseason in order to overcome a daunting path that started with a Sunrise State Showdown against the upstart Florida Panthers and the Cup-contending Carolina Hurricanes. The job for the Islanders doesn’t get any easier, though, as Barry Trotz’s side will now take on the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning. It was another feather in the cap for an organization that has found a way to win despite being counted out at seemingly every turn over the past three seasons. New York was able to gut out both of those series even after falling behind, 2-1, in each one.
It’s a familiar spot for the Isles, as they sat at a similar price against the Boston Bruins in Round 2 and were also underdogs against the Pittsburgh Penguins in Round 1. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The New York Islanders are big underdogs against one of the league’s best teams in a playoff series.Įven after two impressive, grind-them-down victories over the Pittsburgh Penguins and Boston Bruins, the betting market remains a little lukewarm on the Isles, who are +220 underdogs to win their best-of-7 contest with the Tampa Bay Lightning.
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